Germany 2026 ?

For Christmas, a politically aware German with a wealth of life experience sent me the following lines:

“We are sad about the future we are leaving behind for our grandchildren. The next decade will bring a decline of Germany and Europe in international comparison, socially, economically and due to the burden on the next generation resulting from the largest debt in our history – with growing influence of state, tyranny of opinion, plundering of the middle class, general impoverishment and increasing unrest. This will no longer affect us older people. However, we have protested this development – many even supported it – and are therefore guilty towards the next generation.
    We can still enjoy Christmas in prosperity, without fear and in peace. But even peace is no longer secure. Merz wants to make Germany ‘ready for war’ and is not only sinking Germany’s money into the most corrupt European state (Ukraine) but also wants to continue the Ukraine war as a European war (without the USA) against Russia and, like the Ukrainian leader, still believes in an ‘Endsieg’ (final victory), even though Germany has already failed twice in this.
    Every generation apparently wants to repeat the mistakes of the previous one. [...] Towards the end of the last world war, my father clearly foresaw the consequences and even publicly described them in sermons (resulting in repeated arrests), but he always told us that ‘the more it storms outside, the more we must have harmony and cohesion within the family’ and that we should prepare ourselves for the time afterwards.”

On 28 December, the “Berliner Zeitung” newspaper wrote¹:
    “The turn of the year offers [...] little cause for hope. It marks the transition to a year in which [private] households will face ever-higher running costs, while their net income continues to decline. For many, 2026 will be another expensive year – not a good starting point for greater security and social peace.”
    On 26 December, the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” wrote about Germany²:
    “The probability of unemployed people finding a new job was ‘lower than ever before’, says Andrea Nahles, head of the Federal Employment Agency. A rapid turnaround in the labour market is not in sight. [...] For many employees in Germany, 2025 was not a good year. And 2026 is unlikely to be any better. The reason: companies across the country are cutting staff and have announced further job cuts for the coming months.”
    And: “After three years of stagnation, the labour market is showing increasingly deep skid marks. Since its lowest point in spring 2022, the number of unemployed has increased by more than 670,000. [...] From small and medium-sized enterprises to global corporations, companies are laying off employees, cutting training programmes and relocating jobs abroad. Expensive energy, high taxes, rampant bureaucracy and the prospect of rising social security contributions have robbed Germany of its attractiveness as a business location.”
    A few quotes from various survey results conducted by the German television broadcaster ARD in recent weeks and months³:
    “Since May, a new federal government has been in office […]. Currently, just over one in five (22 per cent) are satisfied with his or her work, while three-quarters (76 per cent) are dissatisfied […]. Only 38 per cent still consider Germany’s foreign policy situation to be secure – six out of ten Germans (58 per cent) consider it to be insecure. Only 29 per cent still rate Germany’s economic position in the world as very secure or somewhat secure. Seven out of ten Germans (69 per cent) consider it somewhat or very insecure. Only one in four (26 per cent) still consider social stability in Germany to be secure – 72 per cent consider it insecure.”
    “Merz […] is claiming a leading role for Germany within NATO, backing this up with a commitment to increase defence spending to five per cent of the gross domestic product. At the same time, only 34 per cent of Germans are convinced by his stance on the war against Ukraine. […] When it comes to the war in Gaza […], people are demanding more from those in power: two-thirds (66 per cent) expect the German government to exert greater pressure on the Israeli government to induce Israel to change its course of actions in the Gaza Strip.”
    “Just over ten years ago, only a minority were concerned that another major war could break out in Europe. In the current ARD Deutschland Trend, however, 64 per cent, or almost two-thirds, express very great or great concern about another major war in Europe.”
    And on 15 December, the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” reported⁴:
    “On paper, freedom of expression is guaranteed in Germany. However, many citizens feel that the promise enshrined in the Grundgesetz is increasingly losing credibility. A representative survey [...] shows that most Germans feel they can no longer express their political views without restraint; only a minority still believe in unrestricted speech, while 57 per cent think caution is called for.”
    Clearly, my German colleague is not alone in his Christmas message. Germany is not doing well. The people of this country, who have repeatedly overcome major crises and upheavals in their history – as fellow human beings and as citizens – are once again facing great challenges. Many know that the forces that have set the tone to date are not going to solve the country’s problems. And that it is also unlikely that any of the parties standing for election in Germany will bring about a change for the better. There is a lack of professionally and personally mature personalities. The country’s political culture has suffered greatly in recent decades. The spirit of direct democracy is still not alive enough. Wrong theories and powerful interests have severely weakened the foundations of family, upbringing, education and science, but also of social and economic life.
    However, passing judgement on Germany and the Germans will not make anything better. Who is not sitting in a glass house? Even an economic collapse, a crash, will not make anything better. Rather, it will threaten political chaos and openly dictatorial conditions.
    A new foundation can only be created if there are more people who – despite all the problems ... or perhaps precisely because of them – feel connected with Germany and the people living there and show this. This is also a question of one’s view of humanity and the world, of knowledge and feeling for the development of the individual and all social life in society, the economy and politics. “Reason and humanity” was the theme of our Mut zur Ethik conference end of August 2025. This is also important for Germany. Especially for “the time after”. •

1  https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/wirtschaft-verantwortung/energie-steuern-jobs-warum-das-jahr-2026-fuer-viele-teurer-wird-li.10010314 
2   https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/die-arbeitslosenzahl-in-deutschland-koennte-bald-wieder-ueber-die-marke-von-3-millionen-klettern-ld.1918063 
3   https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend 
4   https://www.nzz.ch/visuals/mehrheit-der-deutschen-aeussert-politische-meinungen-nur-noch-mit-vorsicht-ld.1916157