US main objective is to preventan alliance between Russia and Germany

US main objective is to preventan alliance between Russia and Germany

George Friedman, founder and president of the private US Think Tank Stratfor (Strategic Forecasting Inc.), giving a speech on 4th February 2015 for The Chicago Council on Global Affairs on the geo-political background of the Ukraine crisis and the global situation on the whole (extracts):

“No place is really pacific [at peace and without war] for very long neither the United States … We have constant wars, okay. Europe will I suspect, not return to the 31 years but will return to humanity. They will have their wars. They will have their peace. They will live their lives. There will not be 100 million dead but the idea of the European exceptionalism I think, is the one suffering the first death. There will be conflict. There was conflict in Yugoslavia and there certainly now is conflict in the Ukraine.

As to the relationship to the United States we no longer have a relationship with “Europe“. We have a relationship with Romania. We have a relationship with France. There is no Europe to have a relationship with […]

So, the primordial interest of the United States over which for a century we have fought war, the first, second, and Cold War has been the relationship between Germany and Russia, because united they’re the only force that could threaten us, and to make sure that that doesn’t happen.

If you’re a Ukrainian is essentially reach out to the only country that will help you which is the United States. Last week, ten days ago, General Ben Hodges, Commander of US Army Europe visited the Ukraine. He announced that US trainers would now officially be becoming, not just unofficially coming. He actually pinned medals on Ukrainian fighters, which by protocol of the military; foreigners don’t get to pin on medals, but ‘he did’ showing that this was ‘his’ army. He then left and in the Baltics announced that the United States would be pre-positioning armor, artillery, and other equipment in the Baltics, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, which is a very interesting point. So the United States, yesterday the United States announced it that it would be sending weapons, tonight of course they denied it, but they are, the weapons will go. In all of this, the United States has acted outside the context of NATO because NATO has to have a 100 percent vote.

The point is that the United States is prepared to create a “cordon sanitaire” around Russia. Russia knows it. Russia believes that the United States intends to break the Russian Federation. I think that we don’t want to kill them, we just want to hurt them a little bit. Either way, we are back at the old game. And if you go ask a Pole, or a Hungarian, or a Romanian, they live in a totally different universe from a German, and they live in a totally different universe from a Spaniard. So, there’s no commonality in Europe, but if I were a Ukrainian I would do exactly what they are doing — try to draw the Americans in.

The United States has a fundamental interest. It controls all the oceans of the world. No power has ever done that. Because of that we get to invade people and they don’t get to invade us; it’s a very nice thing. Maintaining control of the sea and control of space is the foundation of our power. The best way to defeat an enemy fleet is to not let it be built. The way the British managed to make certain that no European power could build a fleet was to make sure the Europeans were at each other’s throats. The policy that I would recommend is the one that Ronald Reagan adopted toward Iran and Iraq. He funded both sides so they would fight each other, and not fight us. This was cynical, it was certainly not moral, it worked, and this is the point. [ ...]

The question on the table for the Russians is will they retain a buffer zone that’ s at least neutral, or will the West penetrate so far in the Ukraine that they’re 70 miles away from Stalingrad, and 300 miles away from Moscow. For Russia the status of Ukraine is an existential threat, and the Russians cannot let go. For the United States, in the event that Russia holds onto the Ukraine, where will it stop? Therefore it’s not an accident that General Hodges, whose been appointed to be blamed for all of this, is talking about pre-positioning troops in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, and the Baltics. This is the Intermarium from the Black Sea to the Baltic that Piłsudski dreamt of. This is the solution for the United States.

The issue, to which we don’t have the answers, what will Germany do? So, the real wild card in Europe is that as the United States builds its cordon sanitaire, not in Ukraine, but to the west, and the Russians try to figure out how to leverage the Ukrainians out; we don’t know the German position. Germany is in a very peculiar position. Its former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is on the board of Gazprom. They have a very complex relationship to the Russians. The Germans themselves don’t know what to do. They must export, the Russians can’t take up the export. On the other hand, if they lose the free trade zone, they need to build something different. For the United States the primordial fear is Russian capital, Russian technology ... I mean, German technology and German

capital, Russian natural resources, Russian manpower, as the only combination that has for centuries scared the hell out of the United States. So how does this play out? Well, the US has already put its cards on the table. It is the line from the Baltics to the Black Sea.

For the Russians, their cards have always been on table. They must have at least a neutral Ukraine, not a pro-Western Ukraine. Belarus is another question. Now, whoever can tell me what the Germans are gonna do, is gonna tell me about the next 20 years of history, but unfortunately the Germans haven’t made up their mind, and this is the problem of Germany always. Enormously economically powerful, geopolitically very fragile, and never quite knowing how to reconcile the two. Ever since 1871 this has been „the German question“, the question of Europe. Think about the German question, because now it’s coming up again. That’s the next question that we have to address and we don’t know how to address it, we don’t know what they are going to do.

Source: Transcription of a video on Youtube; <link http: article>

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