My first crash-book in 20011 saw only three crash causes: the speculation bubble, the inflation bubble and a social crash. Therefore, a new edition2 became necessary in 2017 because a previously insignificant crash reason has become increasingly likely, and that is war.
Throughout history, in particular monarchs, dictators and big banks have tried war as a foreign policy solution when they were under pressure domestically, e. g. Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, Churchill. After all, the declaration of a war makes it possible to overrun arisen domestic political difficulties through emergency war laws, e.g. forcing social unrest into war solidarity, solving economic crises through war production, papering over national debt problems through war bonds and war debt and, above all, thus keeping a politically failed government in office. Even the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Obama waged wars in order to maintain sales for the American arms industry and financing opportunities for the financial industry, and to maintain a world monopoly for the commodity cartels (oil).
Economic reasons are consistently in the foreground: see the US oil war in Iraq and Syria, but also the economic war against Iran, Venezuela, Libya.
Ultimately, even the war alliance NATO is, according to its own understanding, an instrument of domination, “to keep the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down!”, and NATO can actually only justify its existence – repudiated by Macron and many others – as an aggression pact against the East, which entails constantly recurring claims of Russian aggression.
American policy itself has its focus on aggression against China because as a growing economic power China is threatening to overtake the USA and, according to the US military, here “a military confrontation as early as possible is necessary”.
So dangers of war exist all around us, not only theoretically, but also practically and even concretely.
Wars have been waged by the USA all the time, but so far they were mostly economic or regionally limited wars. In the final analysis, the US is also waging economic war against Germany, for example in the case of Nord Stream 2, or with the total espionage of its secret service over our entire economy and our digital networks.
But it could come to a world war again if the world money bubble threatens to burst.
Until 1971 (gold standard), the stability and soundness of our currency was the responsibility of central banks. Since then, politics has expanded its ability to appoint central bank boards so that it dominates them – mostly through employees of the world financial syndicate, like the Americans with Yellen, the Italians with Draghi or the EU with Lagarde3. Under political pressure, the central banks have expanded the money supply for all political purposes, flooded it and even multiplied it in the Corona crisis, so that 6 trillion of debts have been created that can never be repaid, but could only be consolidated again as “perpetual debt” (Soros) through galloping inflation and currency crashes.
With such over-indebtedness, many countries on earth can only survive as long as the central banks are able to maintain zero interest rates. However, as soon as, in realisation of the over-indebtedness and the coming devaluation of money, a flight into tangible assets begins in economy and population, and as a result the velocity of money in circulation increases again, this will inevitably lead to galloping inflation, to interest rate hikes and insolvencies of important countries such as Japan, the USA, Greece, Italy, Spain, France, etc. This will inevitably lead to the financial collapse of banks, of the currency, of states, i.e., to a worldwide crash, with the exception of currencies not entrenched in the Western financial system, such as the rouble or the yuan.
Before submitting to a financial collapse, large countries will try to find a foreign policy outlet to neutralise the difficulties and distract the population: namely a war. This keeps a failed government in office for at least a while longer.
At present, a nonsensical spiral is building up:
The author has experienced wartime and knows how terrible war and its consequences are, so he does not understand the indifference of the population to the growing danger of war.
When governments make ready rhetorically, economically and militarily, the population should push for disarmament and peace in all areas. It is no longer a question of climate protection, gender or feminism, but of war and peace, of death or life for millions of people, which could break loose through a single moment of madness in a heated-up situation.
For the economy, this also means thinking about the consequences if Ukraine really were to invade the Donbass in May, possibly triggering a war that would involve all of Europe and us as well. After all, the large-scale NATO manoeuvre Defender Europe 21 has earmarked Germany as a combat zone and even included nuclear weapons.
We are no longer standing apart from the danger, but in the middle of it! Those who do not warn now will themselves be guilty! •
1 cf. Hamer, Eberhard. Was passiert, wenn der Crash kommt? (What will happen if the crash comes?) Stuttgart 2000
2 cf. Hamer, Eberhard. Der grosse Crash-Ratgeber. (The great crash-guide) Rottenburg a. N. 2017
3 Although she was not technically qualified and had been previously finally convicted for corruption.
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