Good news for Latin America

 The assumption of office by Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva as president of Brazil is good news for Latin America and the Caribbean. It is likely that the South American giant will regain the international importance it had in the past and that he will help revive or advance the various integration processes in the region. On the 200th anniversary of the ill-fated Monroe Doctrine, this is more important than ever.

The agenda ranges from the revival of MERCOSUR to CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) and UNASUR, to name but the most important. A sign of the reorientation of Brazil’s foreign policy is the new president’s commitment not only to attend the next CELACsummit – to be held in Buenos Aires on 24 January – but also to return Brazil to this organisation, from which it had withdrawn following a decision by Jair Bolsonaro’s government.

Obviously, however, this is only part of the agenda that Lula’s foreign minister, Mauro Vieira, has to deal with. Strengthening relations with the countries of the global South is another priority, as is pushing for reform of the United Nations Security Council to give Brazil a permanent seat on that body. Another priority issue will undoubtedly be the revival of the BRICS, the agreement between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which is currently undergoing a difficult (but not intractable) Beijing-sponsored enlargement process that will see the inclusion of Argentina, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Senegal and Thailand. After his trip to Argentina, Lula has two highly explosive visits coming up: first to the White House and then to Beijing. Both in the first quarter of the year.
    However, Lula will have to use all his diplomatic negotiating skills to avoid getting caught up in the crusade that the Biden government is waging against two of Brazil’s partners in the BRICS group: against Russia, through the “proxy war” being waged on Ukrainian soil with the participation of Europe’s unworthy neo-colonial governments; and the increasing escalation of the war against China, the “main enemy”, as it is named in the latest document of the US National Security Council. For China is the only country that has the will and the ability to reshape the current world order in its favour. Russia has the will, but not the ability. The war in Ukraine is a move aimed precisely at weakening this capacity.
    But it is different with China. For Brazil, this Asian country is by far the most important trading partner: In 2022, the volume of trade between the two countries reached $ 135 billion, more than twice as much as with the US. Biden’s approach to the Asian giant could not be more aggressive and at the same time more unpleasant for Lula: Biden invited a representative of Taiwan to his inauguration – an unprecedented gesture since the US officially recognised the People’s Republic of China –, and he did the same on the occasion of his failed “Summit for Democracy”, where the envoy from Taipei sat next to none other than Juan Guaidó¹ and other representatives of his ilk. We should also remember the constant provocations of US forces in the South China Sea or Nancy Pelosi’s visit and her attempts to deny China access to microchips.
    Lula knows that another of his BRICS partners, India, is also not welcome to Washington today, because its trade with Russia has doubled and this is interpreted as economic support for the military action in Ukraine and as a weakening of Biden’s sanctions against Russia. Therefore, it is likely that behind the friendly smiles on display in the official photo in the Oval Office of the White House, the tensions that characterise the international system today will come full force to the meeting of the two heads of state once the photographers have left. Washington needs unconditional allies for its holy crusade against Russia and China, but the worst thing Brazil and any other Latin American and Caribbean country can do is to get involved in a conflict that is completely alien to us and in which there is almost everything to lose and nothing to gain. Lula surely knows that one of the few options he has to avoid being hired for this war is to strengthen the Union of the Countries of Our America. Hopefully he can act accordingly or, respectively, will be allowed to do so. •

¹Juan Guaidó was the self-proclaimed and US-backed “interim president” of Venezuela. He has meanwhile also been dropped by the USA.
Source: https://www.pagina12.com.ar/512674-lula-entre-dos-fuegos  of 3 January 2023
(Translation Current Concerns)