Documentation

zf. Repeatedly, Current Concerns has made the devastating effects of the unilateral sanctions of the USA and the EU. These sanctions are contrary to international law, on the world economy and especially on the poorest countries of the world a topic of discussion. Now the Embassy of the Republic of Belarus in Switzerland has sent us the following text, which we are documenting because of its fundamental importance.

The Republic of Belarus has repeatedly pointed out that the sanctions against Belarusian potash fertilisers, including the illegal ban on the transit of Belarusian potash through Lithuania, pose a risk of world hunger and threaten global food security. The Belarusian aide-mémoires on this issue were published as official documents of the United Nations General Assembly (A/76/513, A/76/677, A/77/809).
  However, Lithuania continues to claim that Belarus’ contribution to global food security is allegedly meaningless, despite the fact that Belarus’ share of the global potash fertiliser trade was 20 % by 2022.
  The shortage of potash fertilisers as a result of the restrictive measures against Belarusian potash has led to a shortage of potash fertilisers on the world markets and higher prices, which in turn has led to a decrease in their consumption, lower crop yields and higher food prices. The situation in the world’s least developed countries is particularly dangerous and could lead to a major famine.

The following statements
come from respected international
organisations and agencies

1. The situation reports of the UN Secretary-General António Guterres Task Force on Global Crisis Management in Food, Energy and Finance, published on 13 April 2022 and 8 June 2022, state that Belarus and the Russian Federation together export about one-fifth of the world’s fertiliser. The loss of fertiliser supplies from the Russian Federation and Belarus has caused fertiliser prices to rise faster than food prices. Many farmers, especially smallholders, are forced to cut back on production as the fertilisers they need become more expensive than the grain they sell. Because of this key fertiliser problem, global food production in 2023 may not be able to meet growing demand. Yet one in two people worldwide depends on agricultural products for which fertiliser is used.
2. Joint FAO-WTO Conclusions and Recommendations to G-20 Countries on “Global Fertiliser Markets and Policies”, 14 November 2022¹:
   • Global fertiliser prices have increased significantly;
   • the price increase is exacerbated by a decline in global fertiliser supply. Exports of potash fertilisers from Belarus have fallen sharply from 3.62 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2021 to 1.95 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2022. Import statistics in recent months show that the decline in shipments from Belarus has accelerated;
   • Africa accounts for only 3 % to 4 % of global fertiliser consumption, with about 50 % of the fertiliser supplied going to grow crops important to Africa. The decline in fertiliser consumption will therefore have serious consequences, including undermining the food security of some farming communities;
   • every effort should be made to keep international trade in fertilisers open to meet domestic and global demand.
3. Article by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) of 9 November 2022²:
   • Belarusian potash exports have declined from 9.1 million tonnes (1 December 2021) to 3.9 million tonnes (1 December 2022) due to the sanctions;
   • Importers of potash fertilisers may refuse to buy from Russia and Belarus due to the additional costs and risks involved in doing business with sanctioned countries.
4. World Bank article of 5 January 2023³:
   •  World potash fertiliser prices were USD 562 per tonne on 1 December 2022, compared to USD 221 per tonne on 1 January 2022;
   • exports of potash fertilisers from Belarus decreased by more than 50 % due to restrictions on the use of EU territory for transit. In particular, Lithuania stopped using its railway network to transport Belarusian potash to the port of Klaipeda, which normally handled 90 % of Belarusian exports.
5. Recommendations of the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights on Lithuania’s third report to that Committee of 3 March 2023:
   • The Committee remains concerned about recent measures taken by the State party that have prevented the transport of potash from Belarus destined for third countries in Africa and Latin America, resulting in shortages of fertilisers and negatively affecting food security in these countries;
   • the Committee recommends that the State party review these recent measures affecting fertiliser prices and food security in third countries.

This list is by no means exhaustive.
  In 2021, Belarus and Russia accounted for more than 40 % of potash supplies in almost equal shares, while Canada covered 35.9 % and the US 5.8 %.
  Belarus’ share of global potash trade declined to about 9 % in 2022. Russia’s share fell to 16.4 %. As a result of the decline in volumes from Belarus and Russia, there was a simultaneous increase in potash fertiliser prices.
  The sanctions imposed on the Belarusian potash industry were thus one of the main reasons for a significant increase in fertiliser prices in 2022, which led to a sharp rise in finished food prices.
  For example, the price of potassium chloride in Brazil reached an all-time high of 1,200 US dollars per tonne in 2022. The consequences of this shock were felt by international buyers of Brazilian agricultural products for a long time, when the price of certain types of finished food products increased up to fivefold.
  According to the World Bank forecast in April, the world market price for potash fertilisers will decline on average to USD 475 per tonne in 2023 and USD 425 per tonne in 2024. However, potash fertiliser prices in 2023 and 2024 will be higher than in 2021 (when the restrictive measures against Belarusian potash were imposed).
  It should be recalled that according to the World Bank, world prices for potash fertiliser were USD 221 per tonne on 1 January 2022. Despite a slight decline in prices, affordability for farmers remains low.

Weaker countries
are hit hardest by Sanctions

Belarus’ share of African potash fertiliser markets fell from 41.7 % to 2.8 % in 2022. While Belarus supplied about 632 thousand tonnes of potash to 30 countries on the African continent in 2021, it supplied about 30 thousand tonnes to six countries in 2022. Such countries as Zambia, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Kenya, Réunion and Tanzania were supplied exclusively with Belarusian fertilisers. A number of countries, including Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, Malawi, Senegal and Sierra Leone, met 50 % of their fertiliser needs with Belarusian potash.
  According to our calculations based on FAO data, the almost complete removal of Belarus from the list of potash suppliers in 2022 led to a 16.1 % decline in African grain yields.
  In 2023, deliveries to Africa will come to a complete halt due to Lithuania’s measures.
  The widespread uncertainty among potash market players and related industries about potash fertiliser supplies from Belarus risks devastating consequences for agricultural supply chains and food security around the world.

The potash shortage
on the international market
cannot be resolved in the short term

It is difficult to quickly increase the current production of existing producers and the entry of “new players” involves significant financial and time costs. Building a new mine takes at least 5–7 years from decision-making to the first tonne produced.
  So, if the current food crisis is linked to lack of access to fertiliser, it may be linked to food shortages in the years to come. This has been stated repeatedly by UN Secretary-General Guterres.
  It should be borne in mind that the world’s population is expected to continue to grow. According to UN experts, the world’s population will increase by almost 2 billion people in the next 30 years – from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050, and it could reach a peak of almost 10.4 billion people in the mid-2080s.
  As the world’s population grows, potash consumption will continue to increase due to shrinking and depleted farmland and rising disposable income in developing countries. This will lead to a deficit in the global supply of potash fertilisers.
  Belarus has always made a significant contribution to global food security, but illegal unilateral coercive measures against it push people in vulnerable countries to the brink of famine and lead to food insecurity in the countries that initiate such measures.
  Belarus once again calls for using the potential of the United Nations with regard to Lithuania to make this country abandon political manipulations and abuse of its transit position and return to fulfilling its international obligations.
  We call for the annulation of unilateral coercive measures that not only violate international obligations, including in the framework of the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, but also run counter to the provisions of the United Nations Charter and relevant UN General Assembly resolutions.  •

¹ https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news22_e/igo_14nov22_e.pdf
² https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-sanctions-russia-and-belarus-are-impacting-exports-agricultural-products-and-fertilizer
³ https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/fertilizer-prices-ease-affordability-and-availability-issues-linger
⁴ https://tbinternet.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/treatybodyexternal/Download.aspx?symbolno=E%2FC.12%2FLTU%2FCO%2F3&Lang=en