Getting informed

Many people are very worried. Is it still possible to end the war in Ukraine without it turning into a major European war or perhaps even a world war? Recent surveys in Germany, France, the UK and the USA confirm this.¹ Many people are wondering: what needs to be done to prevent further escalation?
  People’s concerns are plausible: in recent weeks, there have been news reports and commentaries about new levels of escalation almost daily. Personnel decisions in the EU are intended to bring those to power who are in favour of escalation. However, the serious peace efforts that have been and still are made are met with polemics or hushed up.
  On 26 June, Federal Chancellor Scholz gave a government statement in the German Bundestag on the forthcoming EU (27–28 June) and NATO (9–11 July) summits which was followed by a debate with numerous speeches.² Once again, I wondered why the speeches and debates in the German Bundestag are so poor in objectivity and knowledge.

Books on the subject

Then I had to think of books which every politician should read before making a public statement on such a complex issue as the war in Ukraine. After all, it is a question of existential importance for Germany: War or peace?
  For the German readers of our journal, this is a list of some of these books:

• Patrick Baab: “Auf beiden Seiten der Front. Meine Reisen in die Ukraine” (2023)

• Jacques Baud: “Putin: Game master?” (2023)

• Wolfgang Bittner: “Ausnahmezustand. Geopolitische Einsichten und Analysen unter Berücksichtigung des Ukraine-Konflikts” (2023)

• Hannes Hofbauer/Stefan Kraft (ed.): “Kriegsfolgen. Wie der Kampf um die Ukraine die Welt verändert” (2023)

• Sandra Kostner/Stefan Luft (ed.): “Ukrainekrieg. Warum Europa eine neue Entspannungspolitik braucht” (2023)

• Thomas Meyer: “Wahrheitssuche im Ukraine-Krieg. Um was es wirklich geht” (2023)

• Thomas Röper: “Die Ukraine-Krise. 2014 bis zur Eskalation. Wie der neue Kalte Krieg began” (2022)

• Thomas Röper: “Putins Plan” (2022)

• Hermann Theisen/Helmut Donat (ed.): “Bedrohter Diskurs. Deutsche Stimmen zum Ukrainekrieg” (2024)

• Günter Verheugen/Petra Erler: “Der lange Weg zum Krieg. Russland, die Ukraine und der Westen: Eskalation statt Entspannung” (2024)

‘Dare to use your own reason!’

I assume that most members of the Bundestag will dismiss these ten books with labels such as ‘Russian disinformation’ or ‘conspiracy theory’. The fact is that these ten books show quite different positions, including those that I do not share. But in all these books, arguments are above all rational, the claims are substantiated, the reader’s intellect and reason are addressed ... as well as human feeling. Thus: ‘Dare to use your own reason!’
  German public debates are a long way from this. German government policy and that of the largest opposition faction, the CDU/CSU, is currently focussed on war. There can be no question of a rational discussion. With the decision in favour of war, facts are being denied or distorted. Published opinion has taken on grotesque proportions.

Interesting comments

However, in the Bundestag debate on 26 June, there were also MPs who did not beat the war drums. In the eyes of the SPD, Greens, FDP and CDU/CSU, they are ‘extremists’. The German mainstream media did not report on these speeches. Let people make up their own minds.
  “We need security and cooperation on the continent of Europe. Creating and maintaining peace will be the task of the coming years and decades. This requires co-operative structures and alliances that reflect and represent the interests of the members. [...] During the Cold War, the means of mutual deterrence – including nuclear weapons – were heavily relied upon. Today, we have to reassess whether this trial of strength is still a promising and, above all, communicable strategy for pacifying conflicts. I think this is at least questionable. [...] Exchange, understanding and the desire to understand individual and mutual interests will decide between war and peace. Whoever stops negotiating has already lost. [...] In these difficult times, it is clear who formulates and represents our interests with foresight. Unfortunately, NATO in its current form can no longer do this. [...] Make better use of Viktor Orbán’s presidency of the EU Council and invite all war parties to Germany for peace negotiations. This would be a sign of sovereignty.” (Tino Chrupalla, AfD)

The profiteers of war

“The entire government policy of the Red-Green-Yellow government is based on a bare-faced lie: the supposition that there was a threat of a Russian attack on Germany in the coming years and that we therefore need to mobilise 900,000 reservists and set up a headquarters here to supply Ukraine. The US intelligence services’ annual threat assessment report of 5 February 2024 states: ‘With almost absolute certainty, Russia does not want a direct conflict with US and NATO forces’. Why, Mr Pistorius, Ms Baerbock, Mr Kiesewetter and whatever your names are, are you lying to our entire nation about a Russian threat of war that is just around the corner? The main beneficiaries of your ideology in the West are the American and European defence industries.” (Robert Farle, non-attached MP)
  “The policy of both NATO and Germany is not aimed at preserving peace in our country, but at escalation with Russia to the point of war. Helping Ukraine may be noble. But for anyone who doesn’t make money selling zinc coffins and body bags, it is fundamentally wrong, because it is not our war.” (Thomas Seitz, non-attached MP)
  “While Europe is distracted by football, NATO is turning the war between Putin and Ukraine into its own war, distant from any parliamentary control. By taking over the coordination of military aid, Germany in particular, with its strategic war planning in Wiesbaden, is on the verge of becoming a party to the conflict.” (Johannes Huber, non-attached MP)

Step by step towards
a big European war?

“You can’t plug your budget holes, but there seem to be unlimited funds for ever new arms cheques for Ukraine and record orders for Rheinmetall and Co. [...] But the most dangerous and threatening thing is that this policy could lead us step by step into a major European war. That frightens many people. And they expect your federal government to do everything humanly possible to end this terrible war through negotiation. [...] And, no, that does not mean accepting Putin’s terms. A ceasefire on the current front line as a starting point for peace talks would be a realistic option. [...] Why don’t you support China and Brazil, who are demanding exactly that, but instead back Zelensky’s maximum demands, who only wants to negotiate peace once the Russians have withdrawn their troops from Crimea and the Donbass? The time for compromise is over, Zelensky said here in the Bundestag to your applause. Why don’t you explain to the citizens how dying without compromise is supposed to end when the whole of Europe is in ruins?” (Sarah Wagenknecht, Alliance Sarah Wagenknecht BSW)  •

¹ https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/IGA-Modeling-Democracy-2024-The-New-Atlanticism.pdf
² https://dserver.bundestag.de/btp/20/20177.pdf