Who is a threat to democracy?

On 1 September, the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia elected their new state parliaments. The parties most opposed by the political and media mainstream and portrayed as a ‘danger to democracy’ – the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – received a combined 42.4 % of the vote in Saxony (AfD 30.6 %, BSW 11.8 %) and 48.6 % in Thuringia (AfD 32.8 %, BSW 15.8 %). Together, they represent an absolute majority of seats in the new state parliament. In contrast, the three parties of the German federal government together achieved only 12.7 % of the vote in Saxony and only 10.4 % in Thuringia. The CDU came away relatively unscathed with 31.9 % of the vote in Saxony and 23.6 % in Thuringia. The Left Party suffered heavy losses.
  It is common practice in Germany for voters to be questioned in detail outside polling stations on election day so that not only the election results but also a wide range of voters’ opinions can be published after the elections. These surveys are carried out by the German opinion research institute infratest dimap on behalf of ARD, which also publishes the results after the elections.¹ Results are not available for all questions for both federal states.

More than 80 % dissatisfied
with the federal government

In line with the election results of the German governing parties, more than 80 % of voters in both federal states stated that they were ‘dissatisfied’ with the policies of the federal government.
  But there are also other interesting survey results. Voters were asked which issue played the biggest role in their voting decision. In both federal states, the following three topics were mentioned most frequently: social security, immigration, crime and internal security. These are issues that directly affect voters’ everyday lives. The “great concern that crime will increase massively in the future” clearly stands out. In Saxony, 76 % of respondents share this concern, in Thuringia it is as high as 81 %, 17 % more than in the last elections five years ago.
  It is repeatedly claimed that the votes for the AfD and the BSW are primarily “protest votes”. This is contradicted by the fact that voters attribute the greatest competence to the AfD compared to the other parties precisely on the three issues mentioned above. And: the federal government is heavily criticised on these issues in particular. 68 % of respondents in Saxony said: “The federal government is doing too little to ensure that we can live safely in Germany.” There, as many as 80 % answered the question in the affirmative: “Do we need a fundamentally different asylum and refugee policy so that fewer people come to us?” In Thuringia, 84 % answered this question in the affirmative.

Majority criticises
arms deliveries to Ukraine

The survey results on the subject of the war in Ukraine and Russia are contradictory. This was rarely mentioned as an election-deciding issue. BSW voters are an exception. Here, the topic occupies one of the top three places in both federal states. The BSW had made peace policy its central campaign issue and emphasised several times before the elections that it would only participate in a state government if it supported a different policy on Russia and Ukraine: No further arms deliveries to Ukraine and instead ceasefire and peace negotiations with Russia. This is also what the majority of voters want. 56 % of voters in Saxony and 62 % of voters in Thuringia think: “Germany’s support of Ukraine with weapons goes too far.” On the other hand (but only in Saxony²): With 44 % voter satisfaction, German War Minister Pistorius is the frontrunner. Far behind are government politicians Lindner, Habeck and Scholz (bringing up the rear) – clearly behind BSW chairwoman Wagenknecht and AfD chairman Chrupalla. It would be interesting to know what was decisive for these voter figures.

East Germans still see themselves
as ‘second-class citizens’

It is also remarkable that the vast majority of voters still perceive major differences between West and East Germany. 74 % of Saxon voters and 75 % of Thuringian voters say: “East Germans are still second-class citizens in many places.” And 74 % of Saxon voters say: “Politics and the economy are still too heavily dominated by West Germans.” In both federal states, a relative majority still trust the AfD to represent the interests of East Germans. However, this percentage (25 % in Saxony and 25 % in Thuringia) also lags behind the AfD’s share of voters.
  One last look at the statistics: A relative majority of young voters between 18 and 24 years of age voted AfD. In Saxony, it was 31 % (11 % more than in 2019) and in Thuringia even 38 %.

‘We don’t even
live in a real democracy’

German and Western mainstream media outlets, including the New York Times, are saying that the election results in Saxony and Thuringia pose a “threat to democracy”.
  Comparisons are being made with the final years of the Weimar Republic, when the communist KPD and the National Socialist NSDAP made steady gains in elections, eventually becoming the majority in the German parliament, the Reichstag, as early as 1932 … and the NSDAP quickly established a totalitarian dictatorship from 30 January 1933, after Adolf Hitler had been appointed Reich Chancellor almost legally. And there are even louder calls for a “defensive democracy”.
  This ignores the fact that it was the previous governing parties (including the CDU/CSU, which is now the largest opposition group) that have undermined German democracy in recent years.
  Here are some final figures from the election polls in Thuringia³.

• 71 % of respondents say: “Today, you are marginalised if you speak your mind on certain issues.”

• 69 % say: “The state cares more about people who come to us than about our citizens.”

• 54 % say: “Someone is constantly trying to tell me how to live and think.”

• 50 % say: “We don’t even live in a real democracy.”

Hate-filled propaganda
style of the governing parties

It is not possible to say at this point how Germany might change if parties such as the AfD and the BSW were in government. However, labelling both parties as “extremist” and a “danger to democracy” is above all a propaganda formula used by the ruling parties in Germany. And I can only describe the political un-style of the respective party representatives as completely unacceptable. Three examples from the state elections:
  Robert Habeck (Alliance 90/The Greens) said at an election campaign event in Saxony on 30 August 2024: “We don’t do everything right, but corrupt, bought is nobody [in the federal government]. Unlike the AfD and BSW. Because everyone knows that many of them are paid from Moscow and Beijing.” (emphasis km)
  Anton Hofreiter (Alliance 90/The Greens) shouted at the political morning pint at the Gillamoos folk festival in Abensberg, Lower Bavaria, on 2 September 2024: Sahra Wagenknecht is the “worst propagandist of the war criminal Putin” and “one of the worst warmongers we have in the country”.
  And Bernd Posselt from the Bavarian CSU stated on 3 September 2024: Sahra Wagenknecht is Vladimir Putin’s “chief propagandist who endangers peace” and the “Hitler-Stalin pact incarnate”.
  Who is a danger to democracy?  •

¹ https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/.. Further links can also be found there.
² In Thuringia, Sahra Wagenknecht is the politician with whom relatively most respondents (46 %) are satisfied. War minister Pistorius does not appear in the ranking at all. Here too, AfD leader Chrupalla is ahead of government members Scholz and Habeck.
³ The figures for Saxony are in the order of the statements: 69 %, 67 %, 53 % and 47 %.