While the West sets about militarily enforcing the rules-based order in Eurasia, the countries of Eurasia are considering what the rules could look like on their continent. In any case, the deployment of new strategic weapons in Europe has little to do with alliance defence but rather with a lack of interest in the security needs of the majority of the Eurasian continent. The latter were discussed for the second time in Minsk last autumn.
The Conference on Eurasian Security of the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs took place for the second time from 31 October to 2 November last year. The approximately 600 participants from 40 countries included government representatives, diplomats from various international organisations, employees of government-affiliated think tanks, academics and independent experts.1 This meant that the majority of Eurasian states were represented. In addition to the host Belarus, Serbia, Russia, Hungary, China and Myanmar were also represented at a high level. In addition to the old and new Belarusian foreign ministers, Sergei Aleinik and Maxim Ryzhenkov, the driving forces behind the conference were probably Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. The Swiss ambassador in Minsk and the defence attaché from Moscow attended on behalf of official Switzerland.
A dangerous journey?
In his opening speech, President Lukashenko took the opportunity to explain why Belarus no longer complies with the agreement with the EU on the repatriation of refugees by allowing them to move unhindered to the Polish and Lithuanian borders, where European border officials sometimes use force to prevent them from crossing.2 Anyone wishing to verify the Belarusian president’s claims for themselves can do so by travelling via Lithuania, where it is considered appropriate to visibly document their contempt for their Belarusian neighbour on the streets: Signposts across the country read in bad English that Minsk is occupied by the Kremlin: “Minsk, occupied by Kremlin”.
And because European citizens, including those from Lithuania, once enjoyed travelling to neighbouring Belarus for shopping, warning posters were put up at the borders warning people that they could not return from this supposedly dangerous journey.3 Confronted with the behaviour of the Lithuanian border guards, some travellers may indeed find it difficult to return to Lithuania. The experience at the Polish-Belarusian border is not much better.
Diplomatic heavyweight
One of the most interesting presentations was that of the Secretary General of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA), Kazakh Ambassador Kairat Sarybay, who had previously served as his country’s Permanent Representative to the UN and OSCE in Vienna.4 The CICA member states are home to 52 % of the world’s population; more than half of the world’s nuclear weapons are stationed there, and some of the world’s most dangerous conflicts, including those between nuclear powers, are smouldering there. It is telling that Palestine is a member of the organisation. The CICA members will therefore not accept the elimination of Palestine unchallenged. After all, the USA and Israel have observer status, whereas the Europeans don’t even have that. If things get really dangerous and the CICA gets involved, Western Europe will take on a listening role; nothing more.
Global woke-culture
The idea of a “Eurasian Charter for Multipolarity and Diversity in the 21st Century” was born at the first Minsk Security Conference in 2023. Whether multipolarity is already a fact or just emerging is a matter of debate. However, it is certain that it represents a variant of the development of global political, economic and finally also military relations between states, although the Swiss Federal Intelligence Service (FIS) is still able to speak of a “myth” in this regard.5 Whether this variant is realised depends not least on the success of the Eurasian Charter. Certainly, the result will not be a closed bloc, like the blocs of the Cold War, but rather a zone of like-minded people who are united in their rejection of Western interference and in their demand for sovereign equality of states, especially in security matters. The protagonists of CICA share similar historical experiences in dealing with the West and a certain mistrust; a global woke culture, so to speak.
The rule-based order is being fenced in
The signal from the conference will not be welcomed in the West: The Eurasian East, the world region in which the law of the jungle supposedly prevails, is larger than some in the West thought, and it is beginning to organise itself.6 It can be assumed that the protagonists of the conference will set about developing mechanisms for conflict resolution in the coming years, and that the states of the Eurasian region will resent Western interference in the settlement of acute conflicts. The so-called rules-based order of the West will be more or less fenced in; it won’t be the only set of rules. It is obvious that this will be accompanied by a certain loss of influence on the part of the West.
A shift in the balance of power is unlikely to be avoided. The community of states of today is no longer the one of 1945 or even 1991. The militancy of the West, which is reflected in the numerous sanctions in the economic, political, informational and cultural spheres, is forcing the states of the world to take a stand, and this is by no means always in favour of the West. However, this is nothing new; a similar constellation existed during the Cold War with the Non-Aligned Movement7. Those states that don’t want to be drawn into the new Cold War will probably now quickly look for methods and means of resisting Western attempts to exert pressure – not least by military means. Non-alignment or even neutrality is not the attitude of eternally stubborn mavericks, but that of the majority of the world’s population.
The knife at the throat
The CICA states should also realise that even a policy of non-alignment and non-interference must be secured militarily, as noble principles often quickly fade into the background in a climate of power politics, and European diplomacy has long ceased to believe in itself; this is supported by statements from various European leaders that the conflict in Ukraine must be resolved on the battlefield. Sooner or later it probably will.
In recent years, the USA and NATO have continuously increased the operational readiness of rapid reaction force units. A US Air Force air strike group, consisting of around 30 combat aircraft and the corresponding number of support units, can be deployed anywhere in the world within 48 hours. A US Navy aircraft carrier battle group can reach virtually any coast of the world’s oceans within 96 hours. Such an aircraft carrier battle group alone has more combat aircraft than most countries have in their air force. It is followed by an amphibious combat group that can operate with ground forces far inland from a victim. In the meantime, some Western European countries are doing the same as the Americans: They have set up the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) as part of NATO, which was tested in 2023 under German leadership.8 NATO suffered a certain loss of prestige when it became clear in February 2022 that the alliance was only able to mobilise 20,000 troops on its border in the face of a war involving half a million soldiers at the time.9 Western Europe is now also arming itself.
The Prompt Global Strike Programme is the clearest expression of the USA’s striving for global military dominance. It is intended to create the weapons technology basis for the USA to strike anywhere in the world within an hour. First and foremost, this includes the new Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles and the new Typhon medium-range missile system.
These weapons systems form the core of five new brigades, known in US military jargon as the Multi-Domain Task Force. They are best characterised as a strategic missile brigade. In addition to the Dark Eagle and Typhon, these MDTFs are to be equipped with extended-range HIMARS missiles. In addition, there are new means in the field of electronic warfare and computer network operations as well as possibly soon laser weapons for missile defence.10
With this arsenal, these brigades are able to virtually punch holes in defence dispositions, in so-called anti-access area denial systems, with which states attempt to keep intervention forces at bay.12 The US MDTF virtually shoot the way clear for conventional forces to reach enemy territory. The latter then provide allies of the USA or all those countries that are prepared to take part in such interventions and accept the resulting losses.
One of the capabilities of this brigade is probably also to conduct a “decapitation” against the political and military leadership of an enemy. Often attempted and so far never really successful, decapitations will probably be as much a part of war in the future as machine guns and tanks.13 Pre-emptive strikes against strategic weapons are also part of the brigade’s range of capabilities.
The underlying ideas for this were already being considered before the intensification of the politico-military situation after 2014. Against the background of recent statements by Admiral Buchanan, Director of the Strategic Planning Division of the US government, who considers the use of nuclear weapons to maintain US dominance to be justified, a certain amount of concern is not unfounded.14
Global dominance, not defence
These brigades will be set up and stationed in the USA, and they are already destined for potential theatres of war: two for the Indo-Pacific region, two for the European-African region and one globally. The one from Fort Drum in New York State is earmarked for transfer to Wiesbaden. As is customary in the US armed forces, all of the brigade’s equipment fits into transport aircrafts, of which the US Air Force has a large number in its inventory. The long-distance deployment of the brigades has also already been practised, for example from Washington State to the other corner of the country, to Florida, as well as to the north of the Philippine Island of Luzon.
The purpose of the deployment exercises becomes clear when you look at the range of the missiles in space. Of course, the aim is to hold a knife to the throat of the whole of East Asia making Luzon the starting point. From Cape Canaveral in southern Florida, the whole of Central America can be targeted. And from Wiesbaden, the whole of North Africa, the Middle East and European Russia are within reach. In addition, Wiesbaden is close to the hub of Frankfurt Airport, from where the brigade can also be deployed further afield. This will be the real reason why the brigade – a primary target for enemy missiles – is to be stationed in one of the most densely populated regions of Europe. Germany is helping the USA to hold a knife to the throats of other countries. Maintaining military dominance is the goal, not alliance defence. •
1 see “Eurasien organisiert sich selbst, während Europa sich kastriert” (Eurasia is organising itself, while Europe is castrating itself). In: Global Bridge, 8 December 2024, available online at https://globalbridge.ch/eurasien-organisiert-sich-selbst-waehrend-europa-sich-kastriert/
2 see “Poland: Brutal Pushbacks at Belarus Border; Border Guards Use Force, Deny Access to Asylum Procedures” on the Human Rights Watch homepage on 10 December 2024, online at https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/12/10/poland-brutal-pushbacks-belarus-border. Similar reports have been published previously, for example “Lithuania: Pushbacks, illegal detention, deception and abuses against refugees and migrants” on the Amnesty International homepage on 27 June 2022, online at https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/06/lithuania-pushbacks-illegal-detention-deception-and-abuses-against-refugees-and-migrants/ ; see the agreement between the European Union and the Republic of Belarus on the readmission of persons residing without authorisation in the Official Journal of the European Union of 8 January 2020, available online at https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22020A0609(01)
3 According to the Belarusian authorities, a good million residents of EU member states visited Belarus during the two and a half years of visa-free travel between the EU and the Republic of Belarus. Of these, almost 315,000 came from Latvia, 577,000 from Lithuania and 101,000 from Poland.
4 The Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia includes 28 member states, including China, India and Russia; see the organisation’s homepage at https://www.s-cica.org/index.php?view=page&t=member_states. There are also eight observer states, including Indonesia, the USA and Ukraine; ibid. https://www.s-cica.org/index.php?view=page&t=observer_states. For more on Kairat Sarybay, see the TASS homepage, online at https://tass.ru/encyclopedia/person/sarybay-kayrat
5 See Sicherheit Schweiz, Lagebericht des Nachrichtendienstes des Bundes (Security in Switzerland, the Federal Intelligence Service’s situation report”, Intelligence Service of the Federal Government NDB, Bern 2024, p. 18, online at https://www.newsd.admin.ch/newsd/message/attachments/90132.pdf
6 This is how the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, expressed himself in 2022. See Tatjana Söding. “Rede des EU-Aussenbeauftragten; Lektion vom Obergärtner“ (Speech by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs; Lesson from the head gardener”. In: taz of 18 October 2022, online at https://taz.de/Rede-des-EU-Aussenbeauftragten/!5885453/
7 The Non-Aligned Movement currently comprises 120 member countries. See Klaus Schubert, Martina Klein: Blockfreie Staaten, in: Das Politiklexikon, Bonn, bdp Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, online at https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/lexika/politiklexikon/17192/blockfreie-staaten/. The movement lost some of its importance after the end of the Cold War, but it still has its own office at the United Nations headquarters. See also “NAM Members & Observers”, online at mnoal.org/nam-members/ and Coordinating Bureau of the Non-Aligned Countries, UIA Yearbook Profile, Union of International Associations, online at https://uia.org/s/or/en/1100061001
8 See “Ein Jahr VJTF Very High Readiness Joint Task Force – Die Nato North Atlantic Treaty Organization Response Force ist wichtiger denn je” (One year of the VJTF Very High Readiness Joint Task Force – NATO’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization Response Force is more important than ever”, on the homepage of the German Bundeswehr, online at https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/luftwaffe/aktuelles/ein-jahr-vjtf-die-nato-response-force-ist-wichtiger-denn-je-5731980
9 For more on the VJTF, see the homepage of the German Bundeswehr: ‘VJTF Very High Readiness Joint Task Force: Die Speerspitze der schnellen Nato North Atlantic Treaty Organization-Eingreiftruppe’, online at https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/aktuelles/meldungen/vjtf-speerspitze-schnelle-nato-eingreiftruppe. See the homepage of the German Federal Ministry of Defence at https://www.bmvg.de/de/themen/dossiers/die-nato-staerke-und-dialog/vjtf-speerspitze-der-nato and that of NATO at https://www.nato.int/cps/ie/natohq/topics_49755.htm.
10 see Wolfgang Richter: “Stationierung von U.S. Mittelstreckenraketen in Deutschland Konzeptioneller Hintergrund und Folgen für die europäische Sicherheit” (Stationing of US intermediate-range missiles in Germany: conceptual background and consequences for European security), at Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe, July 2024, online at https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21371.pdf; cf. Kelley M. Sayler: Hypersonic Weapons: Background and Issues for Congress Updated 2 January 2025, Congressional Research Service, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R45811.pdf; cf. also Dave Makichuk: “Mach 5 monster; Germany to get Dark Eagle missile”. In: Asia Times, 14 November 2021, online at https://asiatimes.com/2021/11/death-at-mach-5-germany-to-get-lethal-dark-eagle-missile/ and Mark Gunzinger, Lukas Autenreid, Bryan Clark: “Cost-Effective Long-Range Strike”. In: Air & Space Forces Magazine, 30 June 2021, available online at https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/cost-effective-long-range-strike/ and Mark Gunzinger, Jacob Cohn, Lukas Autenreid, Ryan Boone: Towards a Tier One Royal Air Force, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), Washington DC, 2019, available online at https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/RAF_Final_Report_WEB_1.pdf
11 Lars Hoffmann. “Tomahawk, SM-6 und neue Hyperschallwaffe Dark Eagle kommen nach Deutschland” (Tomahawk, SM-6 and new hypersonic weapon Dark Eagle are coming to Germany), in: Hartpunkt, 11 July 2024, available online at https://www.hartpunkt.de/tomahawk-sm-6-und-neue-hyperschallwaffe-dark-eagle-kommen-nach-deutschland/
12 cf. “Die Grenzen der Kanonenboot-Diplomatie – keine Angst vor Flugzeugträgern!” (The limits of gunboat diplomacy – don’t fear aircraft carriers!) In: Global Bridge, 28 November 2023, available online at https://globalbridge.ch/die-grenzen-der-kanonenboot-diplomatie-keine-angst-vor-flugzeugtraegern/
13 The operation “Shock an Awe” against the Iraqi leadership in 2003 achieved fame; see John T. Correll, “What Happened to Shock and Awe?” In: Air Force Magazine, 1 November 2003, online at https://www.airforcemag.com/article/1103shock/; see also https://edition.cnn.com/2003/fyi/news/03/22/iraq.war/ and Melvin LM Mbao. “Operation Shock an Awe: its implications for the future of multilateralism and international law”. In: The Comparative and International Law Journal of Southern Africa, Vol. 37, No. 2 (July 2004), pp. 253–266; online at https://www.jstor.org/stable/23252187?seq=1
14 See Gretchen Small. “Getting the American People ‘Nuclear War Ready”’. In: Executive Intelligence Review, 9 December 2024, available online at https://eir.news/2024/12/news/getting-the-american-people-nuclear-war-ready/. The transcript of his speech under “Project Atom 2024 – CSIS PONI keynote” of 20 November 2024 on the homepage of the US Strategic Command, online at https://www.stratcom.mil/Media/Speeches/Article/3976019/project-atom-2024-csis-poni-keynote/ and a video of his interview at https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch-project-atom-2024
* Ralph Bosshard studied general history, Eastern European history and military history, graduated from the Military Command School at ETH Zurich and completed general staff training in the Swiss Army. This was followed by language training in Russian at Moscow State University and training at the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Army. He is familiar with the situation in Eastern Europe and Central Asia from his six years at the OSCE, where he worked as a special advisor to the Swiss Permanent Representative.
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